Chaotic Theory of Fates — Can we predict the future scientifically?

Today I searched on the internet — “Can we predict the future?”

You may be thinking how medieval of me to search for such a silly thing. So buckle up your seat belts, this one’s gonna be a bit long article (compared to my other ones).

Disclaimer: I’m neither a scientist nor a mathematician. I’m just a curious guy with a laptop and internet. I’m not writing a research paper. So there might be mistakes, BIG mistakes. Please take it as a work of fiction. Anyways you can always discuss things in the comments.

Ok, first thing — I was not in search of a Wizard or Sorcerer(or a witch) to change my future.

I was just thinking — Can probability(Yes, the chapter of Mathematics we all are studying from 6th grade or 7th maybe) help me predict the future? (“Pfffft, Really?”)

Well let’s see(it’s going to be a series of questions and answers, from simple to complex):

First Question: What is the probability of an event?

The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood or chance that the “event will occur”. It is a numerical value between 0 and 1, where 0 represents an impossible event and 1 represents a certain or guaranteed event. (Source: Google, obviously)

Here we’ll be talking about:

1. Conditional Probability: In simple words, Conditional Probability is the chance that some outcome occurs given that another event has also occurred. For example, the probability of event A given that event B has occurred, is denoted as P(A|B).
2. Joint Probability: The joint probability of some particular set of random variables. Denoted as P(A, B, C…). And we can also express a joint probability in terms of a chain of conditional probabilities. (Read in detail from embedded links)

Second Question: On which variables a future event may depend?

Let’s imagine a scenario: We want to find the number of variables that can affect a coin flipped by me. Generally, in normal cases, it is 0.5 for tails and 0.5 for heads. But when we take a real-life scenario, many other variables are also to be considered, like:

1. Orientation and initial position of the coin on my hand before flipping.
2. The force with which I flipped the coin.
3. Metallic Composition of the coin.
4. Weight of the coin.
5. Wind speed and direction.
6. And many more.

And when we take even the tiniest variable(i.e having the tiniest effects), we can list variables like:

1. Gravity at that location on the Earth.
2. Atmospheric properties like humidity, pressure, etc.
3. Will the position of the moon or the moon’s gravity affect it? Maybe very very very little, but it can effect.
4. And the list goes on and on.

Third Question: So how many such factors can we list for such a simple event? Can we list them all? Are they finite? Or infinite?

Well, when we talk about all the factors affecting the outcome of a coin flip, they will be so many, maybe in the range of 10^n, where n is a real number(maybe a large real number). But theoretically, they are FINITE(they have to be). If number of factors is FINITE, then we can use them to calculate the exact probability of an event, THEORETICALLY. For example:

*not actual calculations, just pseudo-equations for better understanding:

P(tails in real life) = P(tails | [initial position of coin = a, force applied in flipping = b, weight of coin = c, wind speed = d, air resistance = e, atmospheric pressure = d, ….. and so on]

But here we are dealing with just two events — heads and tails. Can we use it in multiple-outcome case scenarios? YES, but the equations and process will be much more complex(it was already super complex). But yes it is possible.

Fourth Question: So why aren’t we predicting accurate outcomes or accurate “Future” now?

Firstly, we can not find all the variables and factors affecting an event(even for a simple event like the flipping of a coin) using our current technology. But theoretically, it should be possible.

Second, processing this much data and numbers and handling those in gigantic calculations needs computational requirements as well as computing power and energy which we don’t have now.

But maybe when our civilization will become advanced and we’ll start harvesting “Our Sun” for energy using Dyson Sphere or maybe harvesting the center of our Milky Way Galaxy in the far future, we may be able to develop technology for future prediction.

So is it really possible? I don’t know.

‘In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes‘

- Benjamin Franklin, 1789.

End of questions I guess. I would love to know the loopholes in this hypothesis from the readers of this article(take it as a puzzle or just a brain exercise), I wrote it for fictional purposes so I won’t really mind. (*loud insecure noises)

But if the outcome of any event depends on a finite number of factors or variables only, Is Karma real? Maybe the actions we take now becomes the factor or variable for some future event which we call “KARMA”. But let’s talk about it some other time.